TRT Market Reports

The potential of Africa’s rice market has caught the attention of the East Asian nation of South Korea. The ability of the continent to grow this staple crop has piqued the interest of South Korea which then decided to introduce the K-Rice seed, a technology to boost rice seeds. As a result, South Korea has partnered with some African countries on the K-Rice project.

The East African region is encountering a potential food shortage following extreme weather conditions, characterized by excessive rainfall and floods. These conditions have led to fatalities, injuries, destruction of infrastructure, and significant damage to agricultural lands in areas crucial for food production. 

Rice may not be a staple in most of East Africa, but it is one of the most consumed cereals in the region. Koreans know it, so, over the past couple of years, they have introduced a technology for higher-yielding seed, known as K-Rice. In East Africa, Kenya and Uganda have been pilot sites, although the K-Rice Belt is wider on the continent, including Senegal, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Guinea, Ghana and Cameroon.

Bottlenecks impacting Nigeria’s local rice production

Agricultural analysts have remained optimistic that South Africa is not in a crisis, in spite of the damage to crops that occurred in February and March during the heatwave and the El Niño-induced dryness. The Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) chief economist Wandile Sihlobo on Friday said the recent drought presented upside risks to food price inflation, but not the overall basket.

Smallholder rice farmers drawn from green rolling hills of the Southern Highlands of Tanzania are benefiting from a unique farming technique that has enabled them produce more with less seeds, water, and smaller plots of land while applying the Integrated Pest Management (IPM).

Over the past decade, Nigeria has embarked on an ambitious journey, investing a staggering N1.08 trillion in a bid to revolutionise its rice production sector. Envisioned as the catalyst for achieving rice self-sufficiency, these interventions were hailed as the beacon of hope for a nation eager to reduce its dependence on rice imports and bolster domestic agricultural production.

Kenya is among eight African nations expected to benefit from South Korea's K-rice belt initiative aimed at providing farmers with quality rice varieties and sharing top-notch farming know-how. This is expected to take centre stage at the planned South Korea-Africa Summit slated for June 4 to 5 in Seoul. 

The Association of Rice Millers has confirmed that the reopening the Nigeria-Niger border is responsible for declining rice prices nationwide. Naija News reports that rice prices decreased by 19 per cent despite rising inflation, which stood at 33.20 per cent in March 2024.

Food price inflation in South Africa has dropped to the lowest point since September 2020, says Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), and the outlook for the rest of the year could be better than expected, despite the risks from drought conditions.

FALL ARMYWORM is attacking some early sown winter cereals after building up populations to unprecedented levels in summer crops and other feed sources. Speaking in an online session today with 150 attendees, Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries principal entomologist Melina Miles said this move into winter cereals …

Australian farmland prices are set for further growth in the year ahead – but at a slowing pace – Rabobank says in its just-released annual Australian Farmland Price Outlook. The global agribusiness banking specialist says after three consecutive years of “double- digit” growth, the momentum in agricultural land price increases is expected to further slow…

DEMAND from exporters has lifted values for wheat and barley in the New South Wales and Queensland markets this week. Tempering the rise in values is modest demand from domestic consumers, some of whom are close to fully covered for the upcoming quarter.

European Union-Australian Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations progressed well until late 2023 and might have resulted in a comprehensive and wide-ranging agreement covering traditional trade areas through to new topics such as digital trade.

With an anticipated decline in planted area and yields, wheat production in Australia for the 2024-25 marketing year is forecast at 25.8 million tonnes, 3% below the previous 10-year average, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. The projected output is slightly below last year’s 26-million-tonne harvest and far below the record crop of 40.5 million tonnes in 2022-23, FAS said.

Australia’s farm chemicals regulator is taking too long to approve new products, leading to billions of dollars in preventable crop losses for one of the world’s biggest agricultural exporters, industry groups say. Australia is a major supplier of goods from wheat and barley to cotton and wine.

PLANTING of Australia’s lentil and faba beans crops is well advanced at the ideal time, with area on track to at least match last year’s. Desi chickpea area is expected to be up considerably on last year’s, but prospects for all three crops will depend on rain over coming weeks.

Today the Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) launched the GRDC Data Catalogue, enabling Australian researchers to tap into a goldmine of information to accelerate the release of new technology and knowledge for grain growers.

SETTLED weather dominated much of Australia during the week, as a high-pressure system extended a ridge across southern parts of the continent and gradually moved eastwards. Rainfall was limited to the far-north, parts of the eastern and southern coasts, Tasmania, and patchy areas in the inland west of Western Australia.

PEAK sheep and cattle producer bodies have welcomed an $8.6 million support package for Western Australia’s agricultural industries and rural communities impacted by the current drought conditions.

France unveiled on Monday a revised plan to halve pesticide use in the European Union’s biggest agricultural producer, pledging to adopt an EU indicator and boost research into alternatives in a nod to grievances voiced in farmer protests this year. Environmental regulation was one of the main factors behind protests that swept France and parts of Europe, unsettling governments in the run-up to European elections.

The decision to lift the blockade of border checkpoints between Ukraine and Poland is yielding positive results, including a 20% increase in the flow of Ukrainian agricultural products, First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Taras Vysotskyi told Ukrainian Radio in a recent interview.

Global wheat prices earlier this week retreated from multi-month highs as Russia’s parched crop was finally due for some rain, but those rains were somewhat dismal and the forecast is dry again, threatening to curb the top exporter’s harvest.

The European Union will extend subsidy allowances by six months until the end of 2024 to support the region's agricultural sector following protests from farmers seeking better pay and working conditions. Farmers across Europe have demonstrated against increasing regulation placed upon them by the EU's green agenda, which they say has driven up costs, as well as what they see as unfair competition from foreign imports, particularly from Ukraine.

Ukraine's grains exports will likely decrease in marketing year 2024-25 (July-June) because of lower supply as a result of reduced production volumes, with the Ukrainian Grain Association estimating the country's total grain exports to reach 35.5 million mt in MY 2024-25on March 12.

In February 2023, I wrote a blog which described the sixty-year history of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), since it was established in 1963.  Farmers in the now-27 member union have benefited from CAP financial support for decades, initially in the form of higher guaranteed prices for their products and more recently in the form of direct payments to farm households. 

Cimbria is currently working on two large capacity grain port terminal projects in Poland, an important and growing market for the company.   One project is for HES Gdynia Bulk Terminal in Port of Gdynia in the northeast of Poland. HES is expanding the current grain terminal intake capacity with 1,000 tonnes per hour and expanding with a new flat storage with a capacity of 64,000 tonnes.

Polish farmers stopped their months-long protest at the last border crossing with Ukraine on April 29, Reuters reported. Truckers and farmers have blocked border crossings since fall, expressing concerns with unfair competition and cheap grain. They said the government didn’t take any action to prevent a loss of business to foreign competitors since Russia’s war on Ukraine.

COCERAL, FEFAC and FEDIOL, representing the grain and oilseed trade, feed industry and oilseed crushing industry, released a statement on April 26 endorsing the recent adoption of the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) by the European Union. The law is now subject to final approval by Member States, after which it will be transposed into national law.

The United Kingdom does not feed itself, relying heavily on the European Union for fresh fruit and vegetables. That dependency has changed little since Britain left the bloc in 2020, and could now mean more pain for consumers and small businesses.

Weather volatility is rattling global grain and oilseed markets. The soybean harvest outlook in Rio Grande do Sul, once on track to become Brazils second-largest producer after Mato Grosso state, is now rapidly declining due to torrential rains that inundated fields. The downpours submerged entire cities and farms in the southern state.

A lot of the recent concern in Brazil has been the early end to wet season showers in central Brazil, which is forcing the crop to use up its limited subsoil moisture in a more accelerated fashion. But to the south, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, the opposite has been the problem.

Argentina’s soybean production is expected to increase in 2024-25, with a larger planted second soy crop, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Ribeirao Preto, a major city in the countryside of Sao Paublo, this week hosted Agrishow – the biggest agro fair in Brazil. Almost 200,000 people are expected to visit the stands of over 800 brands – from machine producers to startups to banks. The event featured Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin.

The differences in Brazil’s soybean production estimates from the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) and its Brazilian counterpart, Conab, are larger than usual this year. The biggest discrepancy in the numbers exists between reported usage and stock estimates. An economist with the University of Illinois says the discrepancy is sparking confusion worldwide: “What is the true size of Brazil’s soybean crop?

Argentina's oilseed sector workers lifted their two-day strike late on Tuesday after the lower house of Congress approved contentious reforms backed by President Javier Milei but opposed by some unions. Business at the South American country's top grains ports had been paralyzed by striking union workers, holding up shipments of soy, corn and wheat from one of the world's top farm exporters.

Argentina grains ports were being impacted by strike action against government reforms for a second day on Tuesday, industry officials told Reuters, hitting shipments of soy, corn and wheat from one of the world’s top grains exporting countries. “The strikes are affecting the ports of Rosario. They are affected by the strike measures taken by SOEA and the oilseed federation,” Guillermo Wade, manager of the Chamber of Port and Maritime Activities, told Reuters.

ARGENTINA’S corn-production forecasts are being adjusted drastically lower as the crop, which only a month ago was widely expected to be a record, battles a rare leafhopper plague. This sap-sucking pest is also a vector for the highly pathogenic crop disease known as spiroplasma. More commonly known as corn stunt disease, it can decimate the maturing corn plant…

Brazil's grain exports will pick up in the second half as soy and corn supplies increase despite a drought in the center-west earlier, Reuters reported, citing Cargill's Brazil president Paulo Sousa. Citing a positive outlook for soy in the Matopiba region and in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost state, Sousa said in an interview that soy output projections may be revised upwards.

Workers in Argentine soy-processing plants have gone on strike just as farmers are collecting the crop. The job action that began Monday threatens to paralyse output from Argentina, the world’s biggest supplier of soy meal for livestock feed and soy oil used in food and biofuels.

This was revealed during the negotiations between the vice prime ministers of the two countries, Serik Zhumangarin and Abdul Gani Baradar. Kazakhstan plans to utilize the Beyneu terminal, located in the Mangystau region and with direct access to the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan border, for organizing deliveries of flour and grain to Afghanistan.

Saudi Arabia and its allies in OPEC+ are likely to keep oil production unchanged for a further three months when ministers review output allocations on June 1. The tightening of petroleum supplies and depletion of inventories widely anticipated at the start of the year has failed to materialise so far.

Ten percent of the world’s seaborne trade by volume transits the Suez Canal. Monthly transits through Suez are down 37% year on year. The Suez Canal generated a record $9.4 billion in revenue in 2023. Revenue is down 40%. Security threats will greatly limit transit, redirecting ship traffic away from the Red Sea for some time.

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Egypt, with agriculture being the third largest sector of the national economy, has taken steps to support the expansion of its agricultural exports to more countries. Agriculture is also Egypt's second largest export sector, with fresh and processed products earning the country 9 billion U.S. dollars last year, about 25 percent of the country's total non-oil exports.

Kazakhstan and Afghanistan reached an agreement worth over $ 12 million on the supply of sunflower oil, cereal products, and flour at the Kazakh-Afghan business forum in Kabul, the Prime Minister’s press service reported on April 26.

Oil prices lost more than $1 a barrel on Monday as Israel ceasefire talks in Cairo tempered fears of a wider Middle East conflict, while U.S. inflation data dimmed the prospect of imminent interest rate cuts. Brent crude futures for June settled at $88.40 a barrel, falling $1.10, or 1.2%. The more active July contract ended at $87.20, losing $1.01 a barrel.

Two vessels carrying wheat purchased by Egypt's state grain buyer are facing delays in Russia, two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, amid a dispute that caused other delays in the past month. Wadi Tiba and Edfu, both loaded with around 60,000 metric tons of wheat purchased by the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), have been stuck for weeks in Russian ports, the sources said.

On 30 April, talks held in Dushanbe between Prime Minister of Kazakhstan Olzhas Bektenov and Prime Minister of Tajikistan Kokhir Rasulzoda focused on Kazakh-Tajik cooperation in trade and investment, industrial cooperation, agriculture, transport connectivity, water, and energy.

India and Oman will sign a trade deal in the coming months, two Indian government officials said, as New Delhi seeks to expand its ties in the Middle East, where rising tensions are putting major shipping routes at risk. India and Oman have annual trade of less than $13 billion, but the relationship is important for New Delhi as the Gulf nation is a gateway to the narrow Strait of Hormuz…

Iraq faces a critical environmental crisis as desertification and land degradation continue to threaten agricultural viability, with only 14 million dunams of land remaining suitable for farming, according to the Iraqi Ministry of Environment. The alarming statistics reveal that 71 percent of arable land in Iraq has already succumbed to desertification....

Rice export prices decreased 1-3 percent as the Thai baht weakened.

Soybean futures climbed Wednesday in intra-market spread trading following the conclusion of an Argentinian oilseed worker strike. Soybean oil futures rebounded in technical moves after several futures established contract lows a day earlier when heavy deliveries against May were offset by commercial stops. 

Outstanding export sales and exports by country, region and marketing year

Commodity Futures Price Quotes For US Dollar Index (ICE Futures)

Latest futures price quotes

Latest futures price quotes 

A tale of two is emerging for wheat and barley growers in Australia.

The latest set of grain export inspection data from USDA, out Monday morning and covering the week through April 25, held mostly lackluster and rangebound numbers for traders to digest. Corn led the way again, staying on the higher end of analyst estimates but sliding moderately below the prior week’s tally.

Governments’ support for inputs and rice production have lifted area harvested and yields, boosting production across much of the region.

In the south, long and medium grain milled rice steady. Parboiled prices steady. Second heads and Brewers steady. Rice by-products: Rice Bran, Millfeed and Rice Hulls mostly steady. In California, medium grain milled rice steady to weak. Second heads and Brewers mostly steady. Rice by-products: Rice Bran and rice hulls steady.

Agricultural trade has certainly been a major topic among farmers and farm organizations recently amidst declining U.S. ag exports, a new era of ag trade deficits, and disappointment over trade policy. Dating back to colonial days, trade has been a major part of the Southern agricultural economy.

U.S. wheat, soybean and corn futures soared to multi-month highs on Monday on worries about potentially crop-damaging weather in Brazil and Russia. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July wheat WN24 settled up 26-1/4 cents at $6.48-3/4 a bushel after climbing to $6.50-1/4, its highest level since late December.

Not only are May and June a busy time of year for farmers, but they are also a critical time in the markets. It marks peak grain fill periods for Northern Hemisphere winter wheat crops, the end of harvest for South American soybean crops, primary pollination for the Brazilian safrinha corn crop, and spring planting in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Grains were higher on Friday and closed mostly higher for the week.   The markets are trading weather and specifically corn, soybeans and soybean meal were driven by both U.S. and South American crop concerns says Don Roose, U.S. Commodities.  "Most definitely we added risk premium to the market from weather."

Grain export sales in the week through April 25 didn’t have a lot of surprising data for traders to digest. USDA showed rangebound results for corn, soybeans and wheat. Of particular note, old crop soybean sales jumped 45% above the prior four-week average, while soybean export shipments slumped to a marketing-year low.

We’re buying far more ag products from outside the U.S. than what we’re selling and exporting—and that’s led to a U.S. ag trade deficit of $16.6 billion for fiscal year 2023. One Indiana ag leader says the Biden administration still needs to much more to correct that deficit.

The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates in a target range between 5.25% and 5.5% and signalled that borrowing costs are likely to remain higher for longer, as it continues to grapple with stubborn inflation across the world’s largest economy, writes Andrew Michael.

U.S. ag export demand is suffering from excess global supplies and a strong U.S. dollar. CoBank economist Tanner Ehmke says there is a surplus of grain globally. “You’ve got record crops down in South America, corn and beans. You’ve got record crops in the Black Sea (region) with Russia.

Arkansas’ rice crop rebounded in terms of acres in 2023, with farmers adding 327,000 more acres than they planted in 2022. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that the 1.41 million acres harvested in the state last year was roughly half the rice grown in the country.

Faced with escalating Chinese demand for Brazilian grains, US farmers are struggling with soggy prices for agricultural products.

Chicago soybean, wheat and corn futures all jumped to multi-month highs on Monday on worries about potentially crop-damaging weather in Brazil and Russia and as traders awaited updates on U.S. plantings and crop conditions. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July wheat futures were up 22-3/4 at $6.45-1/4 a bushel by 11:56 a.m. CDT (1656 GMT), after climbing to its highest level since December.

FAO’s forecast for world cereal production in 2023/24 has been raised by 5 million tonnes and now stands at 2 846 million tonnes, up 1.2 percent (35.1 million tonnes) from the previous year’s level. This upward revision mostly rests on adjustments to global rice production, which has been raised by 2.9 million tonnes since April.

India plans to leverage a new case filed by South Africa challenging the strict food safety regulations imposed by the European Union (EU) on citrus fruit to also call for relaxations in standards that currently hinder a whole range of Indian food exports, two people aware of the development said.

It was the 1960s, and dairy farmers in Wisconsin and elsewhere who were members of the National Farmers Organization were destroying their milk to cause shortages in supply chains and improve prices. They were desperate, struggling to make enough to support their families.

Planting activity is well underway across the Heartland. Here is a quick snapshot of the major market movers in the corn, soybean, wheat and fertilizer markets that should remain on your radar while you are busy with fieldwork through the month of May. 

If someone says that commodity prices have "hit a wall," your reaction to that statement really depends on who you are and what economic role commodities play in your life. If you're a farmer, you think, "I know commodity prices seemed to hit a wall back in 2022, darn it; I wish commodity prices would go back higher and jump that wall."

Russia has dramatically increased its grain exports to China, significantly undercutting Australia's longstanding dominance in the sector. This development follows a series of economic sanctions imposed by Australia on Russia, which seems to have responded with a commercial counterblow that reshapes trade dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region.

Small-farm owners around the globe, in fact, are feeling that same sense of helplessness. From Germany and Spain to India and Canada, farmers are rising up to protest not only burdensome new environmental regulations but also the impact of corporate mega-farms and cheap food imports, which have caused their costs to rise and their profits to fall dramatically. 

There is an old saying in trading that “bull markets have long tails.” Meaning, after prices peak, they gradually move lower over an extended period. This may be especially true in commodities, where high prices tend to cure high prices through lower demand and increased production. In 2020, the corn market began a rally predicated on improving demand and tightening world inventories.

Since the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic in early 2020, businesses big and small have faced significant challenges. Though the pandemic has ended, many sectors — including the agricultural industry — still are facing challenges both familiar and unfamiliar. The agricultural sector is crucial to the survival and health of billions of people across the globe.

The primary motivation for farmers to engage in organic farming as a subsistence business is its potential for profitability, which should provide socio-economic, financial, and environmental benefits. This study aimed to assess the financial feasibility of organic rice farming and compare it to conventional farming over a long-term period of 12 seasons.

This study aimed to analyze the production and financial risks of paddy rice farming in Pronojiwo district, Lumajang Regency, East Java, Indonesia. The research was conducted in March to May 2021, after the case of Semeru eruption in December 2020. 

South Korea's antitrust regulator said on Friday (May 3) food makers and suppliers will be required to notify shoppers if they reduce the size of their products or face fines of up to 10 million won (S$9,930).

It hasn’t been that long ago that the only way to irrigate rice was to build a system of levees strong enough to keep water at a prescribed depth on a field until it was ready to be drained and harvested.

Environment, Forest, and Climate Change Minister Saber Hossain Chowdhury on Wednesday shared plans to boost the adoption of eco-friendly technologies in rice cultivation, aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Embracing such technologies not only mitigates carbon footprints but also optimizes resource utilization, potentially unlocking opportunities for international carbon crediting.

‘Ending world hunger, achieving food security and improved nutrition, and promoting sustainable agriculture’ is the United Nations’ number two goal. And it’s one that a company based at Norwich Research Park is confident it can help to solve by growing rice on the surface of the ocean.

The federal government has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Japan on the enhancement of the rice seeds production system and diagnostic capacity in Nigeria.

Nelson woman Yuki Fukuda has grown rice in her garden, and is now helping others to do the same. The kilo of grain her small plot yielded this summer was the first successful rice crop she knew of in Whakatū/ Nelson, and possibly Te Waipounamu/ the South Island too, the ecologist said.

While some might think that family-run farms are a thing of the past, they are in fact the dominant business model in Europe. In 2020, they accounted for slightly more than 9 in every 10 of the EU's 9.1 million farms.

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is an important member of the family Poaceae and more than half of world population depend for their dietary nutrition on rice. Rice cultivars with higher yield, resilience to stress and wider adaptability are essential to ensure production stability and food security.